The next great battle over the globalization of the world's economy will be fought in the rooms of
the Hotel InterContinental in Miami this month, and the outcome could determine the very future of Florida's most enduring symbol: orange juice.

From Nov. 16 through Nov. 21, ministers and other officials from 34 Western Hemisphere nations will come to South Florida to discuss the establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Americas, a no-tariff trading bloc that promises to profoundly change the way goods move between the nations of the Americas and the Caribbean.

"Free trade always benefits the consumer," said Peter Quinter, a trade attorney at Becker & Poliakoff in Fort Lauderdale and Miami. "The lowest-priced producer will make the product, and the consumer pays the lowest price."

But that's not such good news for Florida's citrus growers. Most of the state's citrus is in oranges, and virtually all of those are processed into orange juice. Growers here have been able to keep competition from the world's largest orange producer, Brazil, at bay through a tariff of nearly 30 cents on every gallon of Brazilian orange juice that comes into the United States.

And it's precisely that tariff that the Brazilians want to see disappear under FTAA.

But doing that would mean goodbye to an iconic feature of Florida life and hello to another: development, Florida growers say.

The prediction of Jim Griffiths, managing director of Citrus Growers Associates, a Lakeland-based trade group representing small to midsize growers, is matter-of-fact:

"If the tariff is removed, you will probably see the Florida citrus industry essentially go out of business."

And though prominent Florida politicians such as the president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, have said the state's agriculture must be protected, the White House is prepared to do what it takes to get the FTAA, experts say.

"The administration will have to sacrifice Florida agriculture for the FTAA," said Terry McCoy, Latin American studies director at the University of Florida. "They can't get the agreement if they
don't."

The FTAA, which excludes Cuba, would be the world's largest free market, with a combined gross domestic product of nearly $13 trillion and nearly 800 million consumers from Alaska to Argentina. Those who are pro-free trade say the FTAA will raise living standards and improve working conditions.

The agreement would establish a common set of rules that govern all countries equally and create a favorable environment for investment and growth, according to Florida FTAA Inc., a Miami-based public/private partnership pushing for the so-called Gateway to the Americas to be named the secretariat, or headquarters, of the pact.

"Trade theory says that, as trade grows, economies grow," McCoy said. "If there is more trade in the hemisphere, Florida benefits, simply because the trade goes through the ports. Some sectors, such as agriculture, will be hurt by it. The overall economy will benefit."

The U.S. Trade Representative's Office estimates that the average American family of four would see an income gain of $814 a year from goods and services through FTAA trade liberalization.

Critics: Corporations benefit most

Anti-free traders have a different view.

Washington, D.C.-based Public Citizen, a trade-watch organization founded by consumer watchdog Ralph Nader, contends that corporations are the real winners in free trade.

"When you look at these free-trade deals more closely, it has less to do with trade and more to do with commercial investment for large companies who want to get around domestic regulations," said Public Citizen spokesman Chris Slevin.

Public Citizen's position is reflected by anti-globalization activists, including Lake Worth-based Stop FTAA, a coalition of six groups including the AFL-CIO, the Sierra Club and the Green Party. Their members plan to be among the estimated 20,000 poster-bearing protesters on hand when the FTAA negotiators convene in Miami.

"Our objections to the FTAA are that it is anti-working families, anti-environment and anti-democratic," said Stop FTAA member Deborah Smith, a Jupiter Farms resident and former schoolteacher.

Frank Fernandez, the city of Miami's deputy chief of police, said 34 police departments, from Miami-Dade, Broward, Monroe, Collier and Orange counties, will help provide security for the week.

"There will be demonstrations and marches. The majority of them are peaceful," Fernandez said. "We are well-prepared."

Though not officially aligned, Florida growers and anti-free trade activists share a common concern about big business and, especially, multinational corporations.

The Florida citrus processing industry, which buys the oranges from the growers, is dominated by a handful of multinational citrus processors with international ties. Four of the top five processors in Florida have plants in both Florida and Brazil.

These companies process and market 75 percent of Florida's juice, said Tom Spreen, a University of Florida food and resource economics professor.

Cost difference considerable

The majority of Florida's 12,000 orange and grapefruit growers are small- to medium-size businesses that own about 70 percent of the state's citrus acreage. They sell their oranges, usually under long-term contracts, to either the big five multinationals or one of the seven processors that operate totally within the United States.

The largest of those are Lake Wales-based Florida's Natural and Clewiston-based Southern Gardens Citrus, owned by U.S. Sugar Corp.

Production costs are dramatically different in the two big orange countries. In the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo, it costs 53 cents to harvest a 90-pound box of oranges, and in Florida, $2.10 a box, according to a study conducted by Spreen and colleague Ron Muraro.

Growers now get a net return of about $249 an acre. Without the tariff, they would lose $225 an
acre, or about $250 million a year, Spreen said.

Getting rid of the citrus tariff would "strengthen the hand" of the multinationals, Spreen said. "The
Florida growers would have to sell to one of the six companies."

Unlike producers of some other crops, such as wheat and soybeans, Florida citrus growers receive no federal subsidies. Their only protection against Brazil is the tariff, said Carl Cira, director of the Summit of the Americas Center at Florida International University in Miami.

"I think the U.S. trade representative would have rocks in its head to give 1 inch on the Florida O.J. tariff," Cira said, adding that it seems like political suicide in the upcoming 2004 election for President Bush to sacrifice citrus industry votes.

Along with the green space provided by the state's 800,000 acres of commercial groves would go the 90,000 jobs and the $9 billion the industry generates, and in would come more of Florida's most popular commodity: houses.

"If you weaken agriculture's position, have you really done anything to benefit the people of Florida? Are we better off with 25 million people than 15 million?" Spreen asked. "The citrus freezes of the '80s and the industry's move south caused the Orlando sprawl. We have got to ask ourselves, do we want to become a California?"

But real estate experts say, absent the tariff, everyone in citrus won't become a millionaire overnight through land sales.

"Some areas lend themselves much more to development because of where they are," said Lewis Goodkin of Goodkin Consulting in Miami. "In some areas, there may not be developer interest. They may sell it because of economic conditions to people who are investor-oriented, who are buying in anticipation of future use."

Will Hyatt, 27, who grows citrus and vegetables on 1,100 acres in Osceola County in the middle of the state, said, "What does a guy like me do if citrus goes to pot? Land here is selling for $1,500 to $1,800 an acre."

Trade pact not a sure thing

The establishment of the FTAA is anything but certain. A major rift in the negotiations opened in September during a meeting of the World Trade Organization in Cancun, Mexico. There, talks collapsed after an alliance of poorer nations argued that the more developed countries were trying to pressure them into accepting trade rules they didn't want.

Ostensibly to avoid the type of public fighting that occurred in Cancun and help ensure that the talks progress in Miami, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office said last week it would convene an FTAA "mini-ministerial" Saturday in Washington.

In the end, the worldwide trend toward globalization probably will win the day.

"I know the Florida growers will fight to keep the tariff, but it's globalization. You can't keep a big fence around your country. It won't work," said Ademerval Garcia, president of the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters. "If the tariff is removed, Florida growers will still be in business. Of course, they'll have to be more efficient, but everybody has to be."